Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
